Having the same currency does not mean it is one single country…

The markets are overvaluating the Greek problem and giving to much credit, not to Greece, but to the rating agencies. Finance ministers and government officials of the European Union are meeting today to find a quick solution (not so quick after all…) to the Greek debt, trynig to avoid a possible default that is shadowing the country. One country defaulting in its debt has terrible implications mainly to those who trade with them and or have given credit to them. After that, these banks or countries have to be measured in terms of risk in relation to how much money is at stake in relation to their total size. In a way, it is the same problem as one big company or bank going bust. Like Lehman Brothers… The market is making such a fuss about it and in the end it’s just a game for some, but in reality, we talking about lives of the Greek people, that will be affected by this event. All in all, Europeans are mad at the greek for not using the cash they’got as loans to do something useful to the growth of the country, instead they’ve spent it through bad use of cash and public servants and pensioners salary raises. Ok, that’s water down the bridge, now what? They have upcoming maturities of debt adn responsibilities of payments to meet, and have no cash to do it. If Europe decides to rollover the debt, the voltures of the agencies legally can declare that a form of default, triggering contracts accross the world and all the greek debt will fall due the following 24 hours. Terrible as it may seen, Europeans will find the solution by, “legally” not rolling over the debt, but extending a new loan to the country in a different date. The agencies will cry out but technically there’s nothing they can do. The speed they have knocked down the rating allocated to the country was very surprising in its dilligence, contrary to all the other real defaults we have had in the past, mainly in the western side of the Atlantic Ocean. Maybe the reason for that is the better quality of the analysts responsible for rating European countries and companies than those that work with American companies and the country itself. Who knows?
The main thing to be considered is the credit event of one country is not the same as talking about the dissolution of the European Union or the end of the European currency. That will not happen, the Euro will remain, and will remain strong against the dollar. As a comparison, would the dollar cease to exist if California declared a default? Ok, California is a big state, what about Rhode Island, the smallest in territory, would that mean the end of the american currency? The measurement has to be done through interdealings with companies and countries, their outstanding amounts in loans and receivables from the debtor. Enough of this overreacting and speculation fomented by the media and the markets, that serves only to enrich some people while it destroys the future of an entire population of the country in question.

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One Response to Having the same currency does not mean it is one single country…

  1. mauricio says:

    gosto de como no final do texto, o autor culpa a mídia e especuladores pela “destruição do futuro de uma população inteira” ao invés do governo socialista incompetente (o que é um pleonasmo) eleito pelos gregos, quando o próprio autor diz parágrafos acima que o dinheiro foi mal gasto.

    pessoalmente, nesse momento vejo a grécia como aquele seu parente que vive sem dinheiro para nada, e como sempre teve alguém que ajudou ele financeiramente, ele sempre se preocupou pouco em utilizar o dinheiro que tinha de forma correta. e coincidentemente, ele nunca vai aprender a lidar com dinheiro até que ninguém mais o ajude e ele chegue no fundo do poço. deixem dar o calote, a argentina também fez algo parecido, e nem por isso toda a américa latina faliu, nem a argentina acabou falindo. pode até sofrer por algumas décadas, mas é assim que se aprende. o próprio ricardo disse na entrevista que a crise de 2008 não afetou tanto as empresas brasileiras porque elas possuem o hábito de sempre trabalhar com caixa dada a história brasileira, ao contrário das do exterior, que sempre captam dinheiro fora pra conseguir trabalhar. isso por acaso é ruim? claro que não.

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